Forest had 22% of the ball and scored three times from City mistakes and lost duels. Two down after 18 minutes, City lost a third league game in a row for the first time under Maresca.
The numbers
| Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 78% | 22% |
| Shots | 12 | 11 |
| xG | 1.76 | 1.06 |
| Touches in opp. box | 33 | 14 |
Result the chances deserved: Manchester City 54% / 23% / Nottingham Forest 23% (Poisson).
Starting line-ups
Manchester City (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma, Khusanov, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol, Anderson, Fernández, Ndiaye, Cherki, Doku, Haaland.
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1): Sels, Cunha, Milenković, Murillo, Muñoz, Yates, Schlager, Williams, McAtee, Gibbs-White, Delap.
Forest subs: Ndoye (64', McAtee), Netz (65', Muñoz), Sangaré (78', Yates), Igor Jesus (79', Delap). Unused: John Victor, Diomandé, Kalimuendo, Hudson-Odoi, Wood (FotMob). Yates made his first start of the season (Sky Sports). Coach: Oliver Glasner.
Cards: McAtee (between 52' and 64'), Ndoye (65'), Netz (90+4'), Igor Jesus (90+5', time-wasting) (FotMob); no City player was booked. Goal minutes: FotMob, Sky Sports and Opta Analyst; NBC's live blog has the first goal at 5' and ESPN's text has the second at 19'. xG: FotMob 1.76–1.06.
Key moments, move by move
- City try to build from the back down their left (Goal: Maresca, "we are trying to play, build").
- Forest's right-sided centre-back Jair Cunha steps up and takes the ball off Gvardiol high up the pitch (ESPN, Sky Sports).
- He keeps going into the box, ignoring team-mates in support (Opta Analyst).
- Cunha finishes with his left foot past Donnarumma: Forest's first home league goal of the season (Sky Sports, Premier League).
- Anderson and Ndiaye leave the ball for each other (ESPN).
- Schlager flicks it away from Anderson and into Delap's path (Opta Analyst, Sky Sports).
- Delap carries it from inside his own half into City's box; Guéhi cannot get close enough (Opta Analyst, NBC Sports).
- Delap drives it past Donnarumma: City two down before the 20th minute for the first time since November 2019 (Opta Analyst).
- Doku crosses from the left (ESPN).
- The cross is deflected into Cherki's path near the edge of the box (ESPN, Sky Sports).
- Cherki strikes a half-volley into the top corner past Sels (ESPN, Opta Analyst).
- City lose a duel at the edge of Forest's box (Maresca, via Goal).
- Delap sets Gibbs-White free in Forest's half (ESPN).
- Gibbs-White runs at City's retreating defence and gives it back to Delap (ESPN, Opta Analyst).
- Delap fires it in off the far post (Opta Analyst, NBC Sports).
Forest gave City the ball, won the duels and went straight to Delap
- Forest did not want the ball. They had 22% of possession in a 3-4-2-1 (FotMob). Glasner: "If you want to win against City you have to run" (NBC Sports). Yates, in his first start of the season, hit the crossbar (ESPN, Sky Sports).
- Every goal started with a lost ball. Cunha took it off Gvardiol in City's build-up, Schlager won it from Anderson in midfield, and the third came on a break after City lost a duel near Forest's box. Maresca: "The first goal we are trying to play, build. The second one we lost duels in the middle of the pitch then the third one we lost the duel at the edge of their box" (Goal).
- Delap was the outlet. He carried the ball from his own half for the second and played the one-two with Gibbs-White for the third (Opta Analyst, ESPN). Forest's 11 shots were worth 1.06 xG and they scored three (FotMob); Yates: "People have been speaking about our xG, today we were ruthless" (Premier League).
- City's half-time changes made them better, not good enough. Nunes and O'Reilly came on for the injured Guéhi and Gvardiol (Opta Analyst), and Cherki scored seven minutes later. City finished with 78% of the ball and 33 touches in Forest's box (FotMob), but their only goal came from a deflection and a half-volley.
Tactical scenes
City spent most of the match around Forest's box and found a body each time. Fernández headed Guéhi's cross over from six yards in the 25th minute. In the 40th, Haaland got past Sels and Cunha cleared his shot off the line. Haaland also curled one just over from 12 yards. City's goal came from outside the crowd: a deflected cross and a half-volley.
Evidence: City had 78% of the ball, 33 touches in Forest's box and 12 shots worth 1.76 xG, but scored once (FotMob). Before the 40th minute City had 3 shots worth 0.66 xG (FotMob live match page). FotMob match page · Opta Analyst · ESPN (PA) report
Recreate it in FM26
Nottingham Forest · Forest's 3-4-2-1: give City the ball, jump, run · 3-4-2-1Show cardHide card
Forest's 3-4-2-1: give City the ball, jump, run
| Pos | Player | In Possession | Out of Possession |
|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Sels | Goalkeeper | Line-Holding Keeper |
| RCB | Cunha | Wide Centre-Back | Stopping Wide Centre-Back |
| CB | Milenković | Centre-Back | Centre-Back |
| LCB | Murillo | Ball-Playing Centre-Back | Covering Wide Centre-Back |
| RWB | Muñoz | Wing-Back | Holding Wing-Back |
| RCM | Yates | Box-to-Box Midfielder | Pressing Central Midfielder |
| LCM | Schlager | Central Midfielder | Pressing Central Midfielder |
| LWB | Williams | Wing-Back | Holding Wing-Back |
| RAM | McAtee | Attacking Midfielder | Tracking Attacking Midfielder |
| LAM | Gibbs-White | Advanced Playmaker | Splitting Outlet Attacking Midfielder |
| ST | Delap | Channel Forward | Central Outlet Centre Forward |
Team instructions
In Possession
- Attacking TransitionCounter-Attack
- Passing DirectnessMore Direct
- TempoHigher
Out of Possession
- Line of EngagementMid Block
- Trigger PressMore Often
- TacklingAggressive
The idea: A 3-4-2-1 that drops into a 5-4-1 without the ball and jumps on the first loose touch: Pressing Central Midfielders and a Stopping Wide Centre-Back win it, and a Central Outlet Centre Forward who can carry the ball 50 yards does the rest.
What FM26 can't copy: FM26 can't reproduce two City players leaving the ball for each other, which made the second goal.
Our reading of this match in FM26 terms, not an exported tactic file. Role names as in FM26.
What if? Replay it with a different plan
Our best alternative plan: Formation 4-3-3, Kovačić on at 46' (for Fernández), Foden on at 60' (for Ndiaye). Clearer midfield roles and Kovačić at half-time to stop losing the ball in the middle, then Foden earlier for shots from the edge of the box. Forest's three goals came from City losses, so most of the gain is at the back. It moves Manchester City's win chance from 54% to 72% (xG 1.76–1.06 becomes 2.01–0.56). Try your own changes to formation, pressing, approach and substitutions.
The game-changer Manchester City needed
Mateo Kovačić
City lost the ball in the middle for the second goal and Maresca said they lost the duels and second balls. Kovačić keeps the ball under pressure and turns away from a jump.
Moisés Caicedo
Forest won the duels in midfield and broke at City twice. A midfielder who wins tackles and second balls in that zone stops the counter before it reaches Delap.
What the analysts said
“First half when you don't match intensity and lose all the duels it's difficult.”Enzo Maresca (via Goal)
“The first goal we are trying to play, build. The second one we lost duels in the middle of the pitch then the third one we lost the duel at the edge of their box.”Enzo Maresca (via Goal)
“It's a learning journey.”Enzo Maresca (via Goal)
“Every single player left his heart on the pitch today.”Oliver Glasner (via NBC Sports)
“People have been speaking about our xG, today we were ruthless.”Ryan Yates (via Premier League)
“We've been performing like that every week, just not putting it in the net.”Liam Delap (via Premier League)
Forest let City have the ball and waited for City to lose it, and City lost it three times.
What's happening. City lost 3–1 at Forest, their third league defeat in a row after seven straight wins. Arsenal are six points clear. Forest had not scored at home in the league all season and were in the bottom three at kick-off. They scored from a tackle on Gvardiol, a tackle on Anderson and a break, all from lost duels, as Maresca said afterwards.
How it works. A deep 3-4-2-1 gives you three centre-backs and two wing-backs across the box, so the side with the ball has to pass through a crowd. The trap is in midfield and in the opponent's build-up: when the ball goes to a full-back or a midfielder with his back to goal, two players jump on him. Win it, and one pass reaches a runner like Delap with half the pitch empty in front of him.
What the shots say. By FotMob's xG, City's chances were worth close to two goals and Forest's about one. One reading: Forest finished three good moves and City were unlucky not to score more after the break. The other: City gave away three chances of the kind xG undervalues, a defender running through on goal and two breaks against a stretched back line.