Flick's high line and the Clásico, explained. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
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Barça come back from the international break three points clear, after a comeback at Atlético built on a second-half press. Villarreal, now coached by Iñigo Pérez, keep the ball like few sides in LaLiga and make plenty of chances, but have scored far fewer goals than those chances suggest.
FC Barcelona win 71% · draw 15% · Villarreal CF win 14%. Expected goals 2.97–1.33.
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FC Barcelona have created 48.52 xG and scored 62 in 16 games. Opponents: 18.59 xG, 19 goals. In the league, 33 points from 12 games against 28.1 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 12 | -2 | 18 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ FC Barcelona ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. FC Barcelona in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each LaLiga match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug | LL | Elche CF | 5–0 | 4.38–0.70 | 93% / 5% / 2% | Deserved | – |
| 27 Aug | LL | Athletic Club | 2–0 | 4.23–0.25 | 97% / 3% / 1% | Deserved | – |
| 31 Aug | LL | Rayo Vallecano | 5–2 | 3.04–1.21 | 74% / 14% / 12% | Deserved | – |
| 6 Sep | LL | Valencia CF | 5–0 | 4.08–0.66 | 92% / 5% / 2% | Deserved | – |
| 9 Sep | UCL | Feyenoord | 5–1 | 2.10–0.53 | 74% / 18% / 8% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | LL | Levante UD | 4–2 | 2.58–2.42 | 44% / 18% / 38% | Fortunate | – |
| 16 Sep | LL | Racing de Santander | 7–2 | 6.74–1.98 | 93% / 4% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 19 Sep | LL | Sevilla FC | 3–1 | 3.47–0.40 | 92% / 6% / 2% | Deserved | – |
| 10 Oct | LL | Getafe CF | 3–0 | 1.93–0.14 | 82% / 16% / 2% | Deserved | 87% / 9% / 4% Called it |
| 13 Oct | UCL | Galatasaray | 4–1 | 2.73–0.42 | 86% / 11% / 4% | Deserved | 39% / 21% / 41% Missed |
| 17 Oct | LL | Real Betis | 5–2 | 3.10–1.24 | 74% / 14% / 12% | Deserved | 66% / 16% / 17% Called it |
| 20 Oct | UCL | Paris Saint-Germain | 2–4 | 2.23–3.70 | 21% / 14% / 65% | Deserved loss | 40% / 21% / 40% Called it |
| 25 Oct | LL | Real Madrid | 1–2 | 1.19–1.94 | 23% / 22% / 55% | Deserved loss | 59% / 18% / 23% Missed |
| 31 Oct | LL | Deportivo Alavés | 6–1 | 3.26–0.76 | 85% / 10% / 5% | Deserved | 84% / 10% / 6% Called it |
| 3 Nov | UCL | Aston Villa | 3–0 | 1.86–0.71 | 65% / 22% / 14% | Deserved | 87% / 8% / 5% Called it |
| 8 Nov | LL | Atlético de Madrid | 2–1 | 1.60–1.53 | 40% / 24% / 37% | Fortunate | 45% / 22% / 33% Called it |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG: FotMob (Opta data), all competitions. Penalties: Raphinha (Elche, Racing ×2), Yamal (Levante). Own goals: Rayo (Lejeune), Racing (Villalibre). Alavés xG updated 5 Nov to FotMob's final figure (3.26–0.76; it showed 3.19–0.62 earlier). Atlético away (8 Nov): FotMob 1.60–1.53. Kick-offs from UEFA, LaLiga and the club schedule; the home game with Atlético (Matchday 23) was brought forward to 2 Dec because of the Supercopa. Table: LaLiga, after Matchday 12 (9 Nov 2026).
What's happening. Barcelona came from behind to win 2–1 at Atlético, with two goals from Fermín, and lead LaLiga by three points from Real Madrid. Rodri was out, so Bernal played alone in midfield, and De Jong came on at right-back at half-time. Two weeks after losing the Clásico, the gap at the top is back.
How it works. The shape is still a high line with a press in front of it. When the press works, opponents have no time to aim a pass behind the line; when it doesn't, the line is exposed. At Atlético it didn't work for 45 minutes, and Álvarez was through more than once. Flick's fix was a personnel one: De Jong stepping in from right-back gave the press an extra man, and Atlético faded.
What the shots say. Against Atlético the expected goals were almost level (FotMob). One reading: Barça can now win games they don't control for a whole half, which they could not against Madrid or PSG. The other: Atlético's chances were better ones, and a side that finishes them would have been out of sight before the change. Villarreal at home after the international break will show which half was the real Barça.
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Giuliano Simeone scores from a ten-minute counter and Álvarez wastes more chances behind Barça's high line, but Fermín levels before half-time, Barça press again after it, and Yamal sets up Fermín's winner: three points clear at the top.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Barcelona · 3 NovFC Barcelona 3–0 Aston VillaPedri presses a goal-kick and Yamal scores in the seventh minute, Raphinha adds two after half-time, and a back four with a 20-year-old at right-back keeps Barça's first Champions League clean sheet in 19 games.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 31 OctFC Barcelona 6–1 Deportivo AlavésAfter two defeats Barça are 4–0 up at half-time: Fermín scores one and makes two, Raphinha and Yamal score twice each, and a back four with De Jong at centre-back and a debutant at right-back is barely tested.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 25 OctFC Barcelona 1–2 Real MadridBarça have 62% of the ball and 18 shots, but Madrid's ten are worth more: Mbappé scores off Gerard Martín's clearance and into an empty net at 87', and the perfect league start ends at nine.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Barcelona · 20 OctParis Saint-Germain 4–2 FC BarcelonaDoué scores one and makes another, Barça twice come back through Espart and Yamal, and two late goals from Hakimi's crosses end their 11-game winning start.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 17 OctReal Betis 2–5 FC BarcelonaYamal scores a stunner and sets up another, Rodri and Eric García score from set pieces, and ten-man Betis lose 5–2 as Barça win their ninth league game in a row.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Barcelona · 13 OctGalatasaray 1–4 FC BarcelonaGalatasaray score first on the break, Cancelo levels before half-time, and Yamal sets up two goals in three minutes as Barça win 4–1 in Istanbul.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 10 OctFC Barcelona 3–0 Getafe CFGordon scores after 78 seconds, Gabriel Jesus punishes a Getafe mistake, and Barça make it eight league wins from eight without Raphinha.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 19 SepSevilla FC 1–3 FC BarcelonaSevilla score first and make it awkward for 45 minutes. Then Raphinha scores a perfect hat-trick and Barça make it 21 points from 21.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 16 SepFC Barcelona 7–2 Racing de SantanderThirty shots, 6.74 xG and a Raphinha hat-trick, but FC Barcelona still hand Racing de Santander both their goals.
9 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 13 SepLevante UD 2–4 FC Barcelona3–0 up three minutes into the second half, FC Barcelona let Levante UD back to 3–2 before Adeyemi's run in stoppage time settles it.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Barcelona · 9 SepFC Barcelona 5–1 FeyenoordRaphinha scores inside three minutes, FC Barcelona keep 72% of the ball, and Feyenoord get four shots all night.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 6 SepValencia CF 0–5 FC BarcelonaYamal scores after six minutes, Fermín runs the game between the lines, and Valencia CF don't have a shot after half-time.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 31 AugFC Barcelona 5–2 Rayo VallecanoYamal and Raphinha score two each and FC Barcelona hit five, but Rayo Vallecano's two goals show where Flick's side can be hurt.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 27 AugFC Barcelona 2–0 Athletic Club22 shots, 4.23 xG and eight saves from Unai Simón: FC Barcelona besiege Athletic Club and win by only two.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaFC Barcelona · 23 AugElche CF 0–5 FC BarcelonaA rotated FC Barcelona side wins the ball high, scores from its regains and lets Gordon finish the job off the bench: 5–0 on opening night.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.