Tactics Explained
About

About & method

Tactics Explained breaks down football matches for fans who want to see how a goal happened, not just that it did. It covers Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Real Madrid, FC Barcelona and FC Bayern München in 2026/27.

Who makes it

The site is built and run by Team Mindbike. We decide what gets covered, set the method below, and check what goes out. The analysis on each page is written by Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, working to that method.

How the analysis is made

Each analysis is drafted from match reports, official statistics and published tactical analysis. Every page lists its sources. Scores, scorers, minutes and line-ups are cross-checked in at least two outlets; where outlets disagree, the page says so. Quotes come only from pages we opened, credited to the speaker and outlet. YouTube breakdowns are linked for you to watch; they are never transcribed.

The animations are reconstructions drawn from those reports, not tracking data. Player positions are approximate; the sequence of passes, runs and shots is what matters. We don't use match footage, club badges or player photos.

The column at the end of each analysis is our own opinion. It always ends with a risk flag: the strongest reason the view could be wrong.

How the predictions work

Before each match a simple model estimates each side's expected goals from this season's xG and goals (blended 70/30), shrunk toward last season's level while the sample is small, and adjusted for home advantage using the league's average. A Poisson distribution turns those into win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is frozen before kick-off and graded afterwards, so the record is public: right or wrong.

The model doesn't know about injuries, rotation or tactical match-ups, so each preview lists what it ignores. It is a baseline for discussion, not betting advice.

The What-if Lab

Each analysis ends with a panel where you can replay the match with a different plan: another formation, a higher or deeper defensive line, a different approach with the ball, substitutions from that day's bench. The effect of each change is our estimate for that particular match, based on how the chances actually came about. It is a way to argue about the game with numbers attached, not a simulation.

Reusing our work

You are welcome to quote and link to the written analysis, with credit to Tactics Explained. The animations are different: they are our own reconstructions and the part that takes the most work. Please don't copy, re-draw, screen-record or re-publish them, or use them or the data behind them to train or feed AI systems, without asking us first.

Languages

Pages are written in English and translated into Korean and Japanese. Player names, club names and football terms (xG, high press, the formation numbers) stay in English, because that is how most fans read them.

Updates

Pages update the morning after each match, Korea time. Arsenal matches all get full analyses; for the other clubs, big matches get full analyses and every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.