Mourinho's return, animated. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
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Villarreal are ninth, but their chance numbers are much better than that, and Madrid are short of centre-backs.
Real Madrid win 63% · draw 18% · Villarreal CF win 19%. Expected goals 2.61–1.41.
Real Madrid have created 21.26 xG and scored 20 in 8 games. Opponents: 9.51 xG, 9 goals. In the league, 15 points from 7 games against 15.2 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés | 7 | +5 | 11 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Real Madrid ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Real Madrid in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each LaLiga match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug | LL | RCD Espanyol | 2–1 | 2.71–1.05 | 72% / 15% / 12% | Deserved | – |
| 26 Aug | LL | Real Sociedad | 4–1 | 3.18–0.65 | 86% / 10% / 5% | Deserved | – |
| 30 Aug | LL | Málaga CF | 4–0 | 2.62–0.71 | 78% / 14% / 8% | Deserved | – |
| 4 Sep | LL | Real Betis | 0–1 | 3.46–0.93 | 84% / 10% / 6% | Unlucky | – |
| 8 Sep | UCL | FC Internazionale Milano | 2–1 | 2.76–1.83 | 58% / 18% / 25% | Deserved | – |
| 12 Sep | LL | Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | 2.62–1.21 | 68% / 17% / 16% | Deserved | – |
| 15 Sep | LL | Elche CF | 3–2 | 3.61–0.78 | 88% / 8% / 4% | Deserved | – |
| 20 Sep | LL | Atlético de Madrid | 1–2 | 0.30–2.35 | 3% / 13% / 84% | Deserved loss | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG from FotMob (Opta data) for every match. Madrid's 2025/26 per-game priors: xG/xGA from StatMuse (Opta), goals from the final LaLiga table. League averages (1.57 home, 1.12 away) from SoccerStats' 2025/26 LaLiga figures.
The attack is clearly better. In seven LaLiga games Madrid have produced 18.5 xG, about 2.6 a game, up from 1.99 a game across 2025/26. Across all eight competitive matches they have 21.3 xG created and 9.5 conceded, with 20 goals scored and 9 let in. Mbappé scored in five of the eight. Bellingham scored three times in the first five league games. The defence is roughly where it was: about 1.1 xG conceded per league game, against 1.13 last season.
The results are less convincing than the numbers. The two league defeats both came against teams now above Madrid in the table. At Betis, Madrid created 3.46 xG to 0.93 and still lost 1–0, with Mbappé missing a stoppage-time penalty. That one was mostly bad luck. The derby wasn't. Atlético held Madrid to 0.30 xG (Opta Analyst's figure, 0.32, was Madrid's lowest in LaLiga since February 2015) and got their penalty and red card from a planned attack on Madrid's left side. Two of the league wins also needed a 90th-minute goal from 21-year-old Carlos Espí (at Espanyol and at Elche).
So there are two ways to read the table, where Madrid are fourth and six points behind a perfect Barcelona. The first is that Madrid dominate most games on chances and should keep collecting points. The second is that the only strong side to set up a specific plan against them beat them clearly. October will show which one is right: Villarreal, Roma, Sevilla, Leipzig and then the Clásico at Barcelona, all within 16 days.
Huijsen's red card decided the derby, but Madrid had created almost nothing before it.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 15 SepElche CF 2–3 Real MadridReal Madrid lead Elche CF 2–0, let it slip to 2–2, and need Espí in stoppage time again.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 12 SepReal Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid score three times in 21 minutes down the left, then lose control of the second half.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLReal Madrid · 8 SepReal Madrid 2–1 FC Internazionale MilanoTwo goals from Real Madrid's press, 21 shots against, and Courtois to hold it together.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 4 SepReal Betis 1–0 Real Madrid3.46 xG, a post, a crossbar, two blocks on the line and a saved penalty: Real Madrid's first defeat under Mourinho came from one Real Betis corner.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 30 AugReal Madrid 4–0 Málaga CFFive changes, three goals in 11 minutes: Real Madrid had beaten promoted Málaga CF by the half-hour, led by a Bellingham freed from defensive duty.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 26 AugReal Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadLevel and whistled at half-time, Real Madrid scored three times in the second half once the tempo went up. Mbappé got a hat-trick and Bellingham two assists.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → LaLigaReal Madrid · 22 AugRCD Espanyol 1–2 Real MadridReal Madrid had the ball, the shots and the set piece. The winner still took until the 90th minute and a debutant off the bench.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.