Life after Guardiola: Maresca's first season. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.
After three league defeats in a row, a side that also wants the ball: Fulham have 58% possession on average, and City have not lost to them in 23 meetings.
Manchester City win 64% · draw 19% · Fulham win 16%. Expected goals 2.24–1.04.
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Manchester City have created 33.63 xG and scored 40 in 17 games. Opponents: 21.23 xG, 25 goals. In the league, 21 points from 10 games against 18.6 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | +2 | 15 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ Manchester City ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. Manchester City in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Premier League match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug | CS | Arsenal | 0–3 | 1.12–2.16 | 19% / 20% / 61% | Deserved loss | – |
| 23 Aug | PL | AFC Bournemouth | 2–1 | 2.25–0.65 | 74% / 17% / 9% | Deserved | – |
| 28 Aug | PL | Crystal Palace | 4–1 | 2.21–0.66 | 73% / 17% / 10% | Deserved | – |
| 5 Sep | PL | Coventry City | 1–0 | 2.12–1.37 | 55% / 21% / 24% | Deserved | – |
| 8 Sep | UCL | FC Porto | 2–0 | 2.32–0.28 | 84% / 13% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | PL | Manchester United | 1–0 | 1.10–1.00 | 38% / 30% / 32% | Fortunate | – |
| 17 Sep | EFL | Norwich City | 5–0 | 1.77–0.17 | 78% / 19% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 20 Sep | PL | Sunderland | 5–3 | 2.82–3.57 | 31% / 16% / 54% | Fortunate | – |
| 11 Oct | PL | Liverpool | 3–0 | 1.28–0.94 | 44% / 28% / 27% | Fortunate | 39% / 23% / 38% Called it |
| 14 Oct | UCL | Paris Saint-Germain | 2–4 | 2.63–1.83 | 55% / 18% / 26% | Unlucky | 39% / 23% / 38% Missed |
| 17 Oct | PL | Ipswich Town | 3–2 | 3.35–1.86 | 67% / 15% / 19% | Deserved | 80% / 12% / 8% Called it |
| 20 Oct | UCL | AEK Athens | 5–1 | 2.74–1.17 | 70% / 16% / 14% | Deserved | 29% / 25% / 46% Missed |
| 24 Oct | PL | Aston Villa | 1–2 | 1.56–0.61 | 60% / 25% / 14% | Unlucky | 54% / 21% / 25% Missed |
| 28 Oct | EFL | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2–2 | 0.76–2.03 | 13% / 20% / 67% | Fair | 54% / 21% / 25% Missed |
| 31 Oct | PL | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0–1 | 1.64–1.00 | 52% / 25% / 23% | Unlucky | 52% / 21% / 27% Missed |
| 4 Nov | UCL | RB Leipzig | 3–2 | 2.20–0.87 | 68% / 19% / 14% | Deserved | 32% / 20% / 48% Missed |
| 7 Nov | PL | Nottingham Forest | 1–3 | 1.76–1.06 | 54% / 23% / 23% | Unlucky | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG from FotMob (Opta) for every match. Sky Sports shows the same figures for the league games; other providers differ for the Sunderland game (City's own site: 2.72–4.15). The Community Shield xG differs from the Arsenal page, which uses a different source. At Anfield FotMob gives 1.28–0.94; Sky Sports and Sofascore show 1.30–0.86, and the first-half/second-half split quoted in that analysis is Sofascore's. City won the Carabao Cup tie with Brighton 4-3 on penalties after 2-2; the xG is FotMob's for 90 minutes. For the league game with Brighton on 31 October, FotMob gives 1.64–1.00; the Premier League's Opta figure for City is 1.92. At Leipzig FotMob's match page gives 2.20–0.87 (its report rounds City's to 2.23).
What's happening. City won 3–2 in Leipzig and then lost 3–1 at Forest: three league defeats in a row after seven straight wins. Arsenal are six points clear. City have not kept a clean sheet in eight games in all competitions, and in each of the last three league games they conceded inside the first 11 minutes (Premier League).
How it works. Villa, Brighton and Forest all gave City the ball and waited. City push full-backs and midfielders high to pin the opponent, so when a pass in build-up or a duel in midfield is lost, there are few players between the ball and Donnarumma. Forest scored from a tackle on Gvardiol, a tackle on Anderson and a break. Maresca: "The second one we lost duels in the middle of the pitch" (Goal).
What the shots say. In ten league games City have made 20.1 xG and allowed 12.7 (FotMob, match by match), and scored 21 and conceded 13: close to their chances at both ends. One reading: the attack is still one of the league's best and the results will come back. The other: the numbers say City are a good side, not a dominant one, and the chances they give away are few but clear.
Loading the data lens…
Forest had 22% of the ball and scored three times from City mistakes and lost duels. Two down after 18 minutes, City lost a third league game in a row for the first time under Maresca.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester City · 4 NovRB Leipzig 2–3 Manchester CityCity led twice and were pegged back twice, then Haaland slid in at the back post. Leipzig had more shots, 14 to 12, but City's chances were worth more than twice as much: 2.20 xG to 0.87.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 31 OctManchester City 0–1 Brighton & Hove AlbionThree days after the shootout, Brighton turned the game round: 38% of the ball, nine touches in City's box and one goal from a quick free-kick. City had 21 shots and 63 box touches, and Verbruggen saved seven.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → EFLManchester City · 28 OctManchester City 2–2 Brighton & Hove AlbionNine changes and a back-up keeper's night. Brighton had 2.03 xG to City's 0.76 and led twice; Kovačić's curler and a free-kick off Reis's heel took it to penalties, and Rulli saved two.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 24 OctAston Villa 2–1 Manchester CityThe perfect start ends at Villa Park. City had two and a half times Villa's xG and 56 touches in their box to 12, but Villa's only two shots on target were Jackson's, both after City mistakes, and Suzuki stopped everything else.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester City · 20 OctManchester City 5–1 AEK AthensEight changes, a 17-year-old up front and Haaland on the bench. Foden scored three and set up Cherki, Lewis made two, and City had 54 touches in AEK's box to 10.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 17 OctManchester City 3–2 Ipswich TownSeven league wins from seven, a first for any manager at a new Premier League club. City had 70% of the ball and almost twice Ipswich's xG, and still had to sweat through 12 minutes of added time.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester City · 14 OctManchester City 2–4 Paris Saint-GermainPSG were 3–0 up after 32 minutes. City changed three players at half-time, outshot them 21 to 5 and still lost.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 11 OctLiverpool 0–3 Manchester CityAn even, scrappy hour, then Gravenberch's second yellow: City score three in 13 minutes and make it six from six.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 20 SepManchester City 5–3 SunderlandCity lead three times before half-time, concede a Brobbey hat-trick and still win: five from five, but not much control.
8 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → EFLManchester City · 17 SepManchester City 5–0 Norwich CityTen changes, two goals on debut for 17-year-old Floyd Samba, and a Norwich City side that never had a shot on target.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 13 SepManchester United 0–1 Manchester CityDown to ten after 23 minutes, Manchester City held Manchester United to 1.0 xG and won with a goal the referees' body later admitted should have been reviewed.
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLManchester City · 8 SepFC Porto 0–2 Manchester CityTwenty shots to five and none on target against them: Manchester City were wasteful in Porto, and Haaland fixed it two minutes after the break.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 5 SepManchester City 1–0 Coventry City78% of the ball and a Haaland header, but Coventry City had 1.37 xG and needed two late Donnarumma saves to stop them: Maresca's "ugly win".
1 goal animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 28 AugCrystal Palace 1–4 Manchester CityGuéhi steps out of defence, Cherki takes over after the break: Manchester City win 4–1 at Selhurst Park, though it was only 1–0 for 54 minutes.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → PLManchester City · 23 AugManchester City 2–1 AFC BournemouthManchester City trail AFC Bournemouth until the 84th minute, then substitute Cherki sets up two goals in seven minutes.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → CSManchester City · 16 AugManchester City 0–3 ArsenalBehind after 23 seconds, Maresca's Manchester City lose 3–0 to Arsenal, and all three goals come down the same side.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.