Kompany's Bayern and Kim Min-jae, big matches. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.
Augsburg are fourth and scoring freely, but their underlying numbers are thin. They are also the only team to beat Bayern in the league last season.
FC Bayern München win 82% · draw 11% · FC Augsburg win 7%. Expected goals 3.32–0.97.
FC Bayern München have created 20.69 xG and scored 25 in 7 games. Opponents: 4.36 xG, 4 goals. In the league, 10 points from 4 games against 10.7 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | FC Bayern München | 4 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Sport-Club Freiburg | 4 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ FC Bayern München ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. FC Bayern München in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Bundesliga match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug | DSC | Borussia Dortmund | 2–1 | 2.37–1.65 | 54% / 20% / 27% | Deserved | – |
| 28 Aug | BL | VfB Stuttgart | 5–1 | 4.06–0.79 | 91% / 6% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 2 Sep | DFB | VfL Osnabrück | 4–1 | 3.11–0.13 | 94% / 6% / 1% | Deserved | – |
| 5 Sep | BL | FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | 1.94–0.21 | 80% / 17% / 3% | Points dropped | – |
| 10 Sep | UCL | FK Bodø/Glimt | 5–0 | 2.61–0.30 | 87% / 11% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | BL | SV Elversberg | 2–1 | 2.83–0.94 | 76% / 14% / 10% | Deserved | – |
| 18 Sep | BL | 1. FC Union Berlin | 7–0 | 3.77–0.34 | 94% / 5% / 1% | Deserved | – |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG from FotMob (Opta data) match pages. For Union, FotMob's report and FC Bayern both give 3.77; FotMob's match page shows 3.71. Kick-offs confirmed by bundesliga.com, the clubs and DFB/UEFA listings. Europe switches to CET on 25 Oct.
Seven competitive games, six wins and a draw, 25 goals scored and four conceded. The chance numbers back it up: Bayern have created 20.7 expected goals and allowed 4.4 (FotMob), about 3.0 per game for and 0.6 against. That is roughly the 2025/26 attack (2.9 xG per game in the league, the season Bayern scored a record 122) with a clearly tighter defence so far. Only Dortmund (1.65 xG in the Supercup) have created more than one expected goal against them.
The attack runs through Michael Olise more than ever: 8 goals and 4 assists in seven games, including a hat-trick against Union. Kane has six and became the fastest player to 100 Bundesliga goals. The one blank was telling, though. At Schalke Bayern had 83% of the ball and 1.94 xG but did not score. A deep, disciplined block can still make them wait, and that draw is why they are second, two points behind a Dortmund side that has won all four league games.
For Korean readers: Kim Min-jae, in his fourth season at Munich, is the third-choice centre-back behind Upamecano and Tah. Kompany uses him when he rotates. He played all 90 minutes at Elversberg, where Abendzeitung rated him above Upamecano, and the second half against Union after Upamecano was booked. Kompany's high line suits him, because it rewards defenders who step in early and win the ball back quickly, but his minutes depend on rotation. In October that works in his favour.
Olise scores a hat-trick, Kane reaches 100 Bundesliga goals faster than anyone, and Union manage three shots all night.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 13 SepSV Elversberg 1–2 FC Bayern MünchenSeven changes, 28 shots and a scare: FC Bayern München's bench fixes it at SV Elversberg, and Kane gets his first league goal of the season.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Bayern München · 10 SepFC Bayern München 5–0 FK Bodø/GlimtA first half like FC Schalke 04, then five goals after the break: FC Bayern München stay patient and FK Bodø/Glimt finally crack.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 5 SepFC Schalke 04 0–0 FC Bayern München83% of the ball, six clear chances and no goal: Karius and FC Schalke 04's back five end FC Bayern München's 59-game scoring run.
0 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → DFBFC Bayern München · 2 SepVfL Osnabrück 1–4 FC Bayern MünchenA 30-metre volley after five minutes gave VfL Osnabrück their dream start. It lasted 13 minutes, and FC Bayern München took 22 shots to their five.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 28 AugFC Bayern München 5–1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart pressed and man-marked Kane, and levelled early in the second half. Kimmich answered within three minutes, and Saibari's two assists off the bench finished it.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → SupercupFC Bayern München · 22 AugBorussia Dortmund 1–2 FC Bayern MünchenA left-back at number 10: Brown scores on his debut, Olise runs the game, and FC Bayern München win a Supercup that only got tight in the last 15 minutes.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.