Kompany's Bayern and Kim Min-jae, big matches. Big matches get a full animated analysis; every match gets its score, xG and a graded prediction.
Tap a highlighted match to open its analysis. The dashed card at the end is the next match's preview.
FC Bayern München host 1. FC Köln after the international break, top of the Bundesliga on goal difference and unbeaten all season. Köln are unbeaten at home but have one point from four away games, and Bayern may be without Neuer as well as five injured forwards and midfielders.
FC Bayern München win 87% · draw 8% · 1. FC Köln win 4%. Expected goals 3.62–0.81.
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FC Bayern München have created 50.48 xG and scored 53 in 16 games. Opponents: 14.02 xG, 17 goals. In the league, 21 points from 9 games against 23.6 expected.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 9 | +14 | 18 |
| 4 | Sport-Club Freiburg | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | SV Werder Bremen | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | +2 | 13 |
Bars: expected goals (xG) created. Rings: actual goals. ■ FC Bayern München ■ Opponent
Solid: actual goals. Dashed: xG. FC Bayern München in the team colour, opponents in the contrast colour.
Expected points: the points the chances deserved, from each Bundesliga match's xG.
| Date | Comp | Opponent | Score | xG | W / D / L from the chances | Verdict | Pre-match model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug | DSC | Borussia Dortmund | 2–1 | 2.37–1.65 | 54% / 20% / 27% | Deserved | – |
| 28 Aug | BL | VfB Stuttgart | 5–1 | 4.06–0.79 | 91% / 6% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 2 Sep | DFB | VfL Osnabrück | 4–1 | 3.11–0.13 | 94% / 6% / 1% | Deserved | – |
| 5 Sep | BL | FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | 1.94–0.21 | 80% / 17% / 3% | Points dropped | – |
| 10 Sep | UCL | FK Bodø/Glimt | 5–0 | 2.61–0.30 | 87% / 11% / 3% | Deserved | – |
| 13 Sep | BL | SV Elversberg | 2–1 | 2.83–0.94 | 76% / 14% / 10% | Deserved | – |
| 18 Sep | BL | 1. FC Union Berlin | 7–0 | 3.77–0.34 | 94% / 5% / 1% | Deserved | – |
| 10 Oct | BL | FC Augsburg | 2–2 | 4.96–2.37 | 78% / 10% / 12% | Points dropped | 82% / 11% / 7% Missed |
| 13 Oct | UCL | Viking FK | 3–3 | 3.29–0.72 | 86% / 9% / 5% | Points dropped | 48% / 21% / 31% Missed |
| 17 Oct | BL | RB Leipzig | 6–1 | 3.40–0.84 | 85% / 10% / 6% | Deserved | 71% / 15% / 14% Called it |
| 21 Oct | UCL | Arsenal | 2–2 | 2.33–1.69 | 52% / 20% / 28% | Points dropped | 52% / 25% / 24% Missed |
| 25 Oct | BL | Sport-Club Freiburg | 3–1 | 2.91–1.01 | 76% / 14% / 10% | Deserved | 63% / 18% / 19% Called it |
| 28 Oct | DFB | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6–1 | 3.98–0.86 | 89% / 7% / 4% | Deserved | 84% / 10% / 6% Called it |
| 31 Oct | BL | Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | 4.48–0.74 | 93% / 5% / 2% | Points dropped | 61% / 21% / 19% Missed |
| 3 Nov | UCL | Atlético de Madrid | 2–0 | 1.77–0.83 | 60% / 23% / 17% | Deserved | 53% / 23% / 25% Called it |
| 7 Nov | BL | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2–1 | 2.67–0.60 | 81% / 13% / 6% | Deserved | 73% / 15% / 13% Called it |
“W / D / L from the chances” replays each match with the same xG using a Poisson model. xG from FotMob (Opta data) match pages. For Union, FotMob's report and FC Bayern both give 3.77; FotMob's match page shows 3.71. For Augsburg, FotMob gives 4.96 to 2.37; Bayern's Max Eberl spoke of "a number nearing five". For Viking, FotMob's match page gives 3.29 to 0.72 (Sofascore's own report has 3.51 to 0.56). For Leipzig, FotMob gives 3.40 to 0.84 (revised from 3.69 to 0.74 on 22 Oct); FC Bayern's own analysis gives 3.76 to 0.84 and Bundesliga.com 4.27 to 0.62. For Arsenal, FotMob gives 2.33 to 1.69 (revised from 2.46 to 1.69 on 28 Oct); FC Bayern and Sofascore give 2.51 to 1.40. For Freiburg, FotMob gives 2.91 to 1.01 (its French and Spanish pages show 2.99 to 0.90; Bundesliga.com 2.25 to 1.37). For Magdeburg (DFB-Pokal), FotMob gives 3.98 to 0.86; FC Bayern also gives 3.98. For Dortmund, FotMob gives 4.48 to 0.74 (FC Bayern 4.18 to 0.63, Bundesliga.com 4.83 to 0.70). For Atlético (Champions League), FotMob gives 1.77 to 0.83; beIN Sports' Opta half-by-half figures (1.08 to 0.37 before the break, 1.91 to 1.02 after it) add up to more; beIN's match report gives 0.94 to 0.37 at half-time and 1.77 to 0.83 overall. For Mainz, FotMob gives 2.67 to 0.60 (Opta via beIN Sports the same); Bundesliga.com 3.25 to 0.82. Kick-offs confirmed by bundesliga.com, the clubs and DFB/UEFA listings. Europe switches to CET on 25 Oct. Mainz and Hamburg kick-offs from FC Bayern's fixture list; Köln on Fri 20 Nov at 20:30 (DFB data centre). Paderborn (Matchday 12, 4-6 Dec) not yet scheduled, Slavia Prague on 8 Dec at 21:00 (FC Bayern). DFB-Pokal round of 16 at home to Hertha BSC on Tue 1 Dec at 20:45 (Allianz Arena, Sky Sport). Table after Saturday's Matchday 9 games (FotMob, Bundesliga.com results).
What's happening. Bayern won 2–1 at Mainz, four days after the 2–0 in Madrid. They are level on 21 points with Dortmund and top on goal difference, unbeaten in all competitions. Kane set up both goals at Mainz. Neuer went off with a foot injury on the day he became Bayern's oldest Bundesliga player, and Kompany has still not returned.
How it works. Atlético marked the forwards and Mainz sat in a back five, so both games ran the same way. Bayern keep the ball, wait, and press high the moment it is lost or the opponent plays out short. Kimmich's goal at Mainz came from a ball won after a goal kick. Kane now drops to make goals as well as score them. The cost: opponents with little of the ball live off set pieces, and Mainz nearly equalised from a free-kick.
What the shots say. By FotMob's numbers Bayern have allowed less than one goal's worth of chances in each of their last two games, after more than four goals' worth against Dortmund. One reading: the back line has settled, whoever plays. The other: two wins by a combined three goals from 45 shots, and with Neuer, Musiala, Luis Díaz, Gnabry and Saibari out the margin for poor finishing is shrinking.
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Bayern had 69% of the ball at Mainz and won 2–1. Kane set up both goals, Kimmich's from a ball won after a Mainz goal kick, but Neuer went off injured on a record day and Mainz had a header ruled out for offside before half-time.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Bayern München · 3 NovAtlético de Madrid 0–2 FC Bayern MünchenWithout four forwards or their head coach, FC Bayern München won 2–0 at Atlético de Madrid. Atlético marked Olise, Davies and Kane; Karl robbed Le Normand in his own box, and right-back Laimer, the free man all night, scored the second.
2 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 31 OctFC Bayern München 2–2 Borussia DortmundKovač surprised Bayern with a 4-4-2, Saibari and Gnabry went off injured inside half an hour, Kane hit the bar from the spot, and Fábio Silva's 89th-minute goal kept Dortmund level at the top.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → DFBFC Bayern München · 28 OctFC Bayern München 6–1 1. FC MagdeburgWith Ballon d'Or winner Kane rested on the bench and Kompany still away, Saibari led the line, Olise scored twice and Bayern hit second-tier Magdeburg for six.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 25 OctSport-Club Freiburg 1–3 FC Bayern MünchenWithout Kompany, who collapsed at training two days before, and without six regulars, Bayern lead 2–0 at the break in Freiburg, wobble after an own goal and go back to the top.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Bayern München · 21 OctFC Bayern München 2–2 ArsenalWithout Kimmich, Olise or Díaz, Kompany played Davies at left wing. He scored from Kane's pass, Kane scored a penalty, and Rice equalised eight minutes from time.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 17 OctFC Bayern München 6–1 RB LeipzigAfter two draws, six goals: Luis Díaz scores three and sets up one as Bayern go through Leipzig's back line again and again, and go top.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Bayern München · 13 OctViking FK 3–3 FC Bayern MünchenTwo goals down at half-time, 3–2 up after 71 minutes, then Olise's red card: Bayern take 25 shots in Stavanger and draw 3–3.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 10 OctFC Augsburg 2–2 FC Bayern MünchenBehind after eight seconds and again at 64': Bayern take 30 shots, have four goals ruled out for offside and come away with a 2–2.
4 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 18 SepFC Bayern München 7–0 1. FC Union BerlinOlise scores a hat-trick, Kane reaches 100 Bundesliga goals faster than anyone, and Union manage three shots all night.
7 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 13 SepSV Elversberg 1–2 FC Bayern MünchenSeven changes, 28 shots and a scare: FC Bayern München's bench fixes it at SV Elversberg, and Kane gets his first league goal of the season.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → UCLFC Bayern München · 10 SepFC Bayern München 5–0 FK Bodø/GlimtA first half like FC Schalke 04, then five goals after the break: FC Bayern München stay patient and FK Bodø/Glimt finally crack.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 5 SepFC Schalke 04 0–0 FC Bayern München83% of the ball, six clear chances and no goal: Karius and FC Schalke 04's back five end FC Bayern München's 59-game scoring run.
0 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → DFBFC Bayern München · 2 SepVfL Osnabrück 1–4 FC Bayern MünchenA 30-metre volley after five minutes gave VfL Osnabrück their dream start. It lasted 13 minutes, and FC Bayern München took 22 shots to their five.
5 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → BLFC Bayern München · 28 AugFC Bayern München 5–1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart pressed and man-marked Kane, and levelled early in the second half. Kimmich answered within three minutes, and Saibari's two assists off the bench finished it.
6 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column → SupercupFC Bayern München · 22 AugBorussia Dortmund 1–2 FC Bayern MünchenA left-back at number 10: Brown scores on his debut, Olise runs the game, and FC Bayern München win a Supercup that only got tight in the last 15 minutes.
3 goals animated · tactic breakdown · column →Every diagram plays on a loop like a short GIF: the dots are players moving, the white ball travels with the play, and lines trace where the ball and the runners went. Goal diagrams show the scoring team attacking up the page. Use Pause to freeze any moment. Diagrams are reconstructions from match reports and analysis, not tracking data, so positions are approximate.
Facts (line-ups, minutes, stats, quotes) are cross-checked across at least two outlets where possible. xG sources are named in the notes above and in each match. Tactical claims are credited to the outlet that made them. YouTube analyses are linked, not transcribed. Everything under Column is our own analysis.